The Author's Page for
The Handbook of Key Economic Indicators:
Economic-Indicators.Com

Be Sure to Visit the Site Map, Economic-Indicators.Com,

for Special Links for Tracking the Economy!

Ordering Info

Handbook of Key Economic Indicators
Second Edition, 1998

In Depth Table of Contents

The Handbook of Key Economic Indicators, Second Edition, 1998, has greater depth than other books on economic indicators. Each chapter has basics on timing of economic news releases, agency information, key definitions, and how the indicator fits in over the business cycle. Detailed tables on what the data look like in the agency reports. Charts to emphasize key components over business cycles by component or in comparison to other key series. The Handbook also goes into detail in each chapter how financial markets analyze the indicator and what to look for with each release. What the key components are and check lists for where anomalies each month may show up and "likely explanations." For researchers, underlying methodologies are explained in detail with extensive footnotes and citations at the end of each chapter. Each chapter concludes with annual data for key series in each report.

Special to individual chapters:

Explains timing of economic indicators over the monthly release schedule. Statistical and methodological relationship between indicators. Discussion of how markets react to economic news depending on stage of business cycle. "Before" and "after" release questions to ask. Review of business cycle timing. Table of peaks and troughs. Method of comparing indicator strength over various business cycles. Table of growth rates for GDP and components over business cycles since 1960. Household Survey methodology. Review of methodology changes in 1994. Table comparing questions in old and new Current Population Survey. Discussion of new data/old data differences. Establishment survey methodology. Table comparing employment measured by household survey and by establishment survey. Annual revisions to establishment data and the problem of "birth bias" for new firms. Table with benchmark data, before and after, and bias figures. Problems seasonally adjusting the data and the four-week versus five-week effect. Use of employment data in projecting other indicators. Role over the business cycle. In-depth discussion of component definitions, source data, and how each can affect consumption differently. Discussion of imputed income and consumption such as for some rental income and personal interest income and magnitude of each. Detail on personal taxes and what are excluded and why such as for retail sales tax and property taxes. Difference between personal outlays and expenditures. Detail on components of durables, nondurables, and services and source data discussion. Discussion on limitations of usefulness of the personal saving rate. Special section on farm subsidies and impact on personal income. Special section on how natural disasters can temporarily affect both personal income and personal consumption. Discussion on how different disasters have different effects and over differing time frames. Personal income and consumption—cyclical and long-term trends. Key definitions for retail sales and components. Difference between the advance, preliminary, and final initial monthly estimates. Details on how each major sales group is defined and examples. Short-comings of the auto component estimate and alternative data. Comparison between general merchandise, department store, chain store, and GAF sales. Discussion of the retail "control series" and its place in estimating PCEs and GDP. Special table on the differences between retail sales and PCEs. Monthly price volatility by key components and impact on retail sales. Special seasonal considerations in retail sales. Comparison of sources for imports versus domestics. Discussion of data as organized by end users—consumers, businesses, and government. Problems with allocation of data by end-user and impact on GDP components of personal consumption, producers durable equipment, and government consumption. Discussion of discontinued ten-day sales data. Definitions of light and heavy trucks. Discussion of trend to light trucks by households. Comparison of Federal Reserve series on motor vehicle production and BEA sales data—differences in coverage. Origin of CPI. Differences between original CPI-W and more recent and more popular CPI-U. How CPI diverges from a true cost-of-living index. Discussion of various surveys used as input. Detailed discussion on 1998 revisions: re-weighting, new expenditure categories, and changes in indexing procedure. Table comparing pre-1998 and 1998 categories. Explanation of index weights versus relative importance—impact on forecasting. Discussion of CPI by commodities and services groups. Seasonality problems. Review of the "Boskin Report" and BLS response. Explanation of various biases in CPI and Boskin Commission estimates. Special table on recent CPI methodology changes since 1995 and impact on growth rates. Table of improvements to the CPI, 1966-1995. Table summarizing CPI revisions in 1940, 1953, 1964, 1978, and 1987. Early history of PPI. Overview of PPI classifications: industry, commodity, and stage-of-processing. Discussion of service industries covered by PPIs. The historically important all-commodities PPI and components. Stage-of processing and detail by stage. Special table and discussion comparing PPI for finished goods with the CPI. Underlying fundamentals. Historical revisions in 1997 and impact of chain index methodology. IP by industry structure and IP by market structure. Changing estimation methodologies from initial estimate to "final" monthly estimate to annual revisions. Based on physical product data, kilowatt hours data, and production worker hours data. Special table on impact of availability of types of input data. Use of industry IP data and market IP data with other government series such as orders, exports, and imports. Detailed capacity utilization estimation methodology—differences between initial monthly methodology and annual estimates. Role of capacity utilization as an inflation gauge. Why called the "M3" report. List of series that the manufacturers orders report is source data for. Difference between monthly estimates and annual estimates for new orders—partial source of monthly volatility. Use of industry data. Explanation and special uses of topical series. New orders data—actual definition and timeliness in contrast to intuition. Special focus on M3 data as input into estimates for certain investment data. Summary of earlier reports on manufacturing and retail inventories. Separate discussion on wholesale trade data. Explanations of merchant and non-merchant wholesale inventories. Detailed discussion of changing role of inventories over the business cycle. Planned versus unplanned accumulation and the impact on current GDP versus subsequent quarter(s) GDP. New importance of growth in imports on impact of traditional inventory swing on GDP. How to infer whether accumulation is import driven. Difference between monthly inventories and quarterly inventory investment. The NAPM as an ordinal diffusion index. The composite index and components. Price series (not in composite). Timeliness versus reliability. Regression models using NAPM data for related government series. Table of "break-even" points for monthly analysis. Discussion of similar regional surveys of manufacturing activity. New versus old FT-900 formats—new inclusion of services and goods on balance of payments basis. Census data on merchandise trade by end-user categories. Detail of each category. Explanation of source data, exclusions and additions. Special table on goods exports, imports, and balance to top ten trading partners. Special discussion on how Census data are inputs into BEA balance of payments accounts and into BEA net exports in GDP. Definitional and coverage differences discussed. Detailed discussion of services components in the monthly report. Overview of permits, starts, outlays, and sales. Housing starts and permits methodology and survey changes over time. Detail of outlay methodology as derived from starts. Explanation and detail of outlay categories. Use of outlays as source data for GDP fixed investment structures. New home sales and inventories (homes for sale). Role over the business cycle. Explanation of differences in single-family level values for permits, starts, and sales. Gross domestic product versus gross national product and why the BEA made the switch in 1991. The switch to chain-weighted GDP from constant-dollar GDP in 1996. Discussion on Fischer indexes. Detail on expenditure component methodology, subcomponent series, and quirks in each component. Inventory "swing" and GDP growth. New treatment of expenditures and investment in the government component. GDP price deflators and price indexes—differences in definitions and data sources. Chain price indexes, the Laspeyres tail, and the eliminated Laspeyres tail. Special table comparing GDP deflators and price indexes with the CPI and the PPI. Complications in using chain-weighted GDP—in current analysis and forecasting. Special table comparing advantages and disadvantages of fixed-weighted and chain-weighted GDP. Key questions for evaluating cyclical trends in GDP. How to track pending revisions to GDP—list of monthly source data. Background on the Conference Board. History of composite indicators. Evaluation criteria for inclusion of components in composite indexes. Groupings of cyclical indicators. December 1996 comprehensive revisions to composite indicators. Detailed discussion of ten components of leading index and economic rationale for inclusion. Table comparing pre-December 1996 composite components with December 1996 components. The leading index as a forecasting tool—"the Three Ds." Table of leading indictor's leads and lags prior to turning points. Table of false signals of recession with leading index versions of 1989, 1993, and 1996. Deriving net contributions to the composite indexes. Dating the business cycle. Comparison of labor productivity concept with multifactor productivity. Data sources and adjustments to data for productivity. Compensation and unit labor cost measures in the productivity report. Comparison to employment cost index. Long-term versus cyclical movement in productivity. Definition and uses of employment cost index. Detailed explanations and listings of earnings and benefits Explanation of ECI as a Laspeyres index for a fixed labor pool.

Be Sure to Visit the Site Map, Economic-Indicators.Com,

for Special Links for Tracking the Economy!

Ordering Info

Email comments or suggested additions to rmrogers@mindspring.com